Fiscal Year 2024 Quarter 3 approval data

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FY2024 Q3 approval data EB2 NIWUSCIS just published the data for approval rates in the employment-based green card categories. This includes approval and denial rate data for the EB2 NIW category. In the National Interest Waiver category, the new official data suggests that we have reached a new low in the approval data. The number of approvals appear to start leveling off as well.

Official USCIS data

Before we start presenting the data analysis we have performed, it is important for you to know that all these numbers indirectly come from USCIS Statistic reports you can find on their official website. USCIS reports data for I-140 cases each quarter, and they now provide an Excel file for easy interpretation by the final user. 

Approval rates for EB2 NIW

The latest data released is for the third quarter of Fiscal Year 2024. That means we are talking about the months of April, May, and June 2024. Remember the fiscal years for this agency go from October to September!

During this time, the EB-2 NIW approval rate decreased to 68%, the lowest number since we track these metrics (Fiscal Year 2022). In fact, numbers have continuously decreased since they peaked at almost 100% at the end of Fiscal Year 2022. 

EB-2 NIW approval rate fell below EB-1A

The graph below allows you to understand the approval rate data and compare it to the higher EB-1A category. It is interesting to see how once again the approval rates for the two categories have met each other (and in fact NIW is now lower for the first time). This is counter-intuitive, since EB1A is a higher standard to meet, so it is reasonable to expect that the denial rates are higher in that category. However, a combination of factors may have caused this new phenomenon. Among them, I would bet at the increased popularity of NIW, which may be causing weaker-than-ever cases to be filed before the USCIS, boosting the denial rates.

 

Demand remains strong, growth has stopped

During Fiscal Year 2023 the number of EB2 NIW cases filed before USCIS had dramatically increased, going from less than 4,000 per quarter to more than 9,000. The popularity of the category caused a sudden filing frenzy that is now starting to finally see moderation. In this latest quarter, USCIS is reporting 8,976 EB2 NIW cases filed. It is the first time in four quarters the number falls below 10,000.

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Top countries by number of approvals in EB2 NIW

The USCIS statistics also allow us to compare countries when it comes to the number of approved I-140 in this National Interest Waiver category. Once again China and India take the first two positions of the ranking, with 1,387 and 1,062 I-140 approvals, respectively. Even though China is still the leader, it saw a reduction of 147 approvals with respect to Quarter 2.

Brazil advanced one position to rank third in this table. However it also saw a decrease in the number of approvals with respect the previous quarter (from 802 to 411). Nigeria moved down one position “losing” 227 approvals in one quarter.

You can access the table below that shows the 100 top countries, to look for the one your are curious about:

Position Country # Approvals % of total
1 CHINA 1387 22.79
2 INDIA 1062 17.45
3 NIGERIA 441 7.25
4 BRAZIL 411 6.75
5 IRAN 410 6.74
6 KOREA SOUTH 247 4.06
7 BANGLADESH 214 3.52
8 PAKISTAN 195 3.2
9 COLOMBIA 177 2.91
10 VENEZUELA 122 2.0
11 TAIWAN 111 1.82
12 GHANA 84 1.38
13 MEXICO 83 1.36
14 NEPAL 74 1.22
15 TURKEY 59 0.97
16 VIETNAM 52 0.85
17 CANADA 51 0.84
18 RUSSIA 49 0.81
19 EGYPT 48 0.79
20 UNITED KINGDOM 38 0.62
21 PERU 37 0.61
22 ARGENTINA 33 0.54
23 FRANCE 32 0.53
24 ITALY 30 0.49
25 SRI LANKA 26 0.43
26 GERMANY 26 0.43
27 ECUADOR 24 0.39
28 UKRAINE 22 0.36
29 ETHIOPIA 21 0.35
30 JORDAN 21 0.35
31 KAZAKHSTAN 21 0.35
32 SPAIN 20 0.33
33 JAPAN 19 0.31
34 CHILE 19 0.31
35 ISRAEL 18 0.3
36 SAUDI ARABIA 15 0.25
37 PHILIPPINES 15 0.25
38 LEBANON 14 0.23
39 SOUTH AFRICA 14 0.23
40 KENYA 14 0.23
41 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 13 0.21
42 POLAND 12 0.2
43 CAMEROON 12 0.2
44 MALAYSIA 12 0.2
45 HONG KONG 11 0.18
46 HONDURAS 11 0.18
47 RWANDA 10 0.16
48 MOROCCO 10 0.16
49 IRAQ 10 0.16
50 GREECE 8 0.13
51 THAILAND 8 0.13
52 ARMENIA 8 0.13
53 UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 8 0.13
54 SOVIET UNION 7 0.12
55 SYRIA 7 0.12
56 SUDAN 7 0.12
57 IRELAND 7 0.12
58 PORTUGAL 6 0.1
59 SINGAPORE 6 0.1
60 KYRGYZSTAN 6 0.1
61 AUSTRALIA 6 0.1
62 UZBEKISTAN 6 0.1
63 BELARUS 6 0.1
64 HUNGARY 6 0.1
65 UNKNOWN 6 0.1
66 NETHERLANDS 5 0.08
67 UGANDA 5 0.08
68 AZERBAIJAN 5 0.08
69 LIBYA 5 0.08
70 BELGIUM 5 0.08
71 ROMANIA 5 0.08
72 INDONESIA 5 0.08
73 COSTA RICA 5 0.08
74 GUATEMALA 4 0.07
75 TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO 4 0.07
76 AUSTRIA 4 0.07
77 TUNISIA 4 0.07
78 MONGOLIA 4 0.07
79 KUWAIT 4 0.07
80 BOLIVIA 4 0.07
81 AFGHANISTAN 4 0.07
82 CÔTE D'IVOIRE 3 0.05
83 CZECHIA 3 0.05
84 QATAR 3 0.05
85 GEORGIA 3 0.05
86 TAJIKISTAN 3 0.05
87 SWEDEN 3 0.05
88 ZIMBABWE 3 0.05
89 BULGARIA 3 0.05
90 EL SALVADOR 3 0.05
91 BURMA 3 0.05
92 JAMAICA 2 0.03
93 ERITREA 2 0.03
94 BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA 2 0.03
95 YEMEN 2 0.03
96 TANZANIA 2 0.03
97 COPIONAS 1 0.02
97 TOGO 2 0.03
98 CAMBODIA 2 0.03
99 SIERRA LEONE 2 0.03
100 CYPRUS 2 0.03

Approvals by country over time (top 25)

In the graph below I present the number of I-140 approvals in the EB2 NIW category over time, for the top 25 countries by number of approvals. You can deselect certain countries if you want to focus on specific nations.

Conclusions and what the numbers mean for you

EB2 NIW approvals are at a record low since we track this data from USCIS. The reasons can be multiple, but given the increasing popularity of this green card category, we are inclined to think that more ill-prepared cases are arriving to USCIS. Of course, it could also be that USCIS is tightening the evaluation standards for these cases although there is no official indication of that happening (no change of Administration has occurred in the last months).

Remember that these statistics do NOT represent your chance of success at EB-2 NIW. Each case is unique and will be judged by USCIS independently. The success of your petition will ultimately depend on:

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